RIYADH: The Middle East’s commercial airline fleet will see a 5.1 percent compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2035, above the 2.8 percent global average, according to a new forecast.
A report by consulting firm Oliver Wyman projected 2,557 aircraft would be available in the region, with fleet expansion fueled by demand for short-haul flights.
The Middle East’s share of the global commercial fleet is projected to rise from 5.3 percent in 2025 to 6.7 percent by 2035. Alongside fleet expansion, maintenance, repair, and overhaul spending is forecast to surge from $16 billion in 2025 to $20 billion in 2035, propelled by the increasing number of aircraft.
The analysis underscores the region’s aggressive push to strengthen its aviation sector, aligning with broader economic ambitions — particularly in Saudi Arabia, where the government’s National Tourism Strategy aims to attract 150 million visitors by 2030.
Andre Martins, head of transportation, services, and operations practices for India, the Middle East, and Africa at Oliver Wyman, said: “The Middle East commercial aviation market is on a growth trajectory, supported by strong demand for air travel, from both full-service airlines and low-cost carriers entering the market.”
He added: “The region’s fleet expansion will be driven primarily by the addition of narrowbodies that will cater to the growth in domestic and shorter-haul flights.”
Martins said that there is a significant opportunity for different countries in the Middle East to capture the large market potential across the entire value chain, while simultaneously enhancing the productivity and efficiency of operations.
“By leveraging global insights and best practices, the aviation sector in the Middle East can adapt their strategies to address local challenges while driving substantial improvement,” he added.
Saudi Arabia and UAE flying high
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are driving much of this growth, accounting for 60 percent of the region’s aviation market, according to Oliver Wyman’s analysis.
Saudi Arabia leads in domestic travel, making up 45 percent of total seats, while the UAE remains focused on international traffic.
A recent report by the International Air Transport Association highlighted the Middle East’s aviation sector growth, with passenger demand rising 9.6 percent year on year in January.
IATA also noted that the capacity of air carriers in the region increased by 4.4 percent compared to the same month last year.
However, air cargo demand saw an 8.4 percent year on year decline in January.
Narrow-body aircraft to dominate fleet
The Middle East’s fleet expansion will be dominated by narrow-body aircraft, projected to reach 1,190 by 2035, marking a rise of 75.25 percent compared to 2025.
Their share of the region’s total fleet will grow from 43 percent to 47 percent. One of the key advantages of narrow-body aircraft is their superior fuel efficiency. Their streamlined design and lighter weight make them an environmentally favorable choice for airlines aiming to cut carbon emissions and lower fuel consumption.
The number of widebody aircraft in the region is projected to reach 1,307 in 2035, representing a rise of 63.17 percent compared to 2025. The number of Turboprop aircraft in the Middle East region will be 37 by 2035, followed by regional jets at 23.
Global outlook
The analysis projects the global fleet to surpass 38,300 aircraft by 2035, with production challenges prompting airlines to delay retiring older planes, raising the fleet’s average age.
Narrowbody aircraft are expected to maintain their dominance, with their share increasing from 62 percent to 68 percent by 2035.
The report highlighted that emerging regions like China, India, and the Middle East are poised to capture a larger share of the global aviation market, reflecting shifting industry dynamics.
India’s commercial airline fleet is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 8.5 percent from 2025 to 2035.
The report forecasts aircraft production to reach 1,800 units in 2025, rising to 2,200 by 2029 and just over 2,400 by 2035.
In December, a separate IATA report projected the aviation industry’s net profit to climb to $36.6 billion in 2025, up from $31.5 billion in 2024.
The industry body also estimated passenger numbers will hit 5.2 billion in 2025 — a 6.7 percent increase from 2024 — marking the first time global travelers surpass the 5 billion mark.
IATA further projected cargo volumes to rise 5.8 percent year on year to 72.5 million tonnes in 2025.
